A Methodology for the Identification of Key Factors in Power System Planning: The Case of Mexico

COP21 represented a starting point for several nations to develop and implement energy transition strategies to face and mitigate climate change, making the electrical power sector crucial in achieving the established goals and commitments. This research presents a 7-step methodology to improve decision-making in energy transition strategies for the power sector by integrating an economic dispatch optimization model based on linear programming to determine vulnerable aspects of power generation and transmission in strategic planning scenarios that could jeopardize the country’s energy transition. The application of the methodology is implemented under the open-source platform Python Optimization Modelling (PYOMO) and illustrated through a case study of the Mexican Electrical Power System (SEN) during the year 2025. The case study shows that the reserve margin fluctuated due to the variable renewable energy installed despite having a vast installed capacity to supply the country’s total demand. In addition, the results showed that most of the transmission lines had a congestion frequency higher than 90% of their capacity during most of the year. Two regions were identified as the best options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by installing new power plants. Finally, most technologies reflected an under-generation, suggesting a high dependence on some fuels to supply the Mexican demand. The model’s programming is freely available in GitHub.