Enhancing Short- and Medium-term Solar Power Generation Forecasting Based on Prophet and Gate Recurrent Unit

Accurate solar power forecasting is pivotal for the effective planning, management, and operation of power systems, ensuring a sustainable energy supply for consumers while optimizing the integration of renewable energy sources and the functioning of electricity markets. Recent advancements have focused on developing predictive models that offer precise daily forecasts for solar power generation, which are critical for power usage planning and production efficiency. These models typically leverage a diverse range of data inputs, including solar power metrics and meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed—factors that significantly influence solar power generation due to their weather-dependent nature. This study introduces a novel hybrid forecasting model that synergizes the capabilities of the Prophet model and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), leveraging their respective strengths to enhance predictive performance. The proposed model is rigorously evaluated across short-term (2 days, 7 days) and medium-term (15 days, 30 days) forecasting horizons. Experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid model significantly outperforms the existing models, delivering superior accuracy in solar power generation forecasts.