A Novel Exponential Regression Model for Analyzing Dengue Fever Case Rates in the Federal District of Brazi

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Abstract

This work offers a new log generalized odd log-logistic exponential regression model for analyzing weekly dengue fever cases in 2022 with a location-systematic component. To achieve this, a data set of 49 observations of dengue fever cases in the Federal District of Brazil is employed. A review of the mathematical properties of the generalized odd log-logistic exponential distribution is provided, the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters, and, through Monte Carlo simulations, the accuracy of the estimators is investigated. The model's fit is assessed using global influence metrics and residual analysis. For the time scenario studied, the proposed regression identified factors that have an impact on dengue fever cases, which may contribute to improve disease control. Finally, several interpretations are addressed, and a discussion presents results that aid in better understanding the data set and future research on different data.

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