Visible and Real Sizes of New COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in Ukraine
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Abstract
Background. To simulate the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics, various data sets and different mathematical models can be used. In particular, previous simulations for Ukraine were based on smoothing of the dependence of the number of cases on time, classical and the generalized SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) models. Different simulation and comparison methods were based on official accumulated number of laboratory confirmed cases and the data reported by Johns Hopkins University. Since both datasets are incomplete (a very large percentage of infected persons are asymptomatic), the accuracy of calculations and predictions is limited. In this paper we will try to assess the degree of data incompleteness and correct the relevant forecasts. Objective. We aimed to estimate the real sizes of two new epidemic waves in Ukraine and compare them with visible dynamics based on the official number of laboratory confirmed cases. We also aimed to estimate the epidemic durations and final numbers of cases. Methods. In this study we use the generalized SIR model for the epidemic dynamics and its known exact solution. The known statistical approach is adopted in order to identify both the degree of data incompleteness and parameters of SIR model. Results. We have improved the method of estimating the unknown parameters of the generalized SIR model and calculated the optimal values of the parameters. In particular, the visibility coefficients and the optimal values of the model parameters were estimated for two pandemic waves in Ukraine occurred in December 2020–March 2021. The real number of cases and the real number of patients spreading the infection versus time were calculated. Predictions of the real final sizes and durations of the pandemic in Ukraine are presented. If current trends continue, the end of the pandemic should be expected no earlier than in August 2022. Conclusions. New method of the unknown parameters identification for the generalized SIR model was proposed, which allows estimating the coefficients of data incompleteness as well. Its application for two pandemic waves in Ukraine has demonstrated that the real number of COVID-19 cases is approximately four times higher than those shown in official statistics. Probably, this situation is typical for other countries. The reassessments of the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in other countries and clarification of world forecasts are necessary.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.13.21258838: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter:…
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.13.21258838: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.19.21253938: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.19.21253938: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-