Estratificación de áreas de riesgo de transmisión de dengue y sus características espacio temporales en la ciudad de Jaén, Perú entre 2000 y 2022

Dengue is the leading arboviral disease in the Americas, with Peru among the most affected countries over the past decade. This observational, ecological, and retrospective study aimed to identify temporal patterns and stratify transmission risk areas in the city of Jaén, which accounts for over 80% of dengue cases in the Cajamarca department. Data on reported cases from 2000 to 2022 and georeferenced clinical information from 2019 to 2022 were analyzed. A total of 4,540 cases were recorded in the recent period, with a marked increase from 2021 onward. Most cases occurred in women, adults, and individuals without warning signs. It was found that the DENV-2 serotype was the predominant one in the analysis period. The most frequent symptoms were fever, myalgia, headache, arthralgia, retro-ocular pain, lower back pain, and rash. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed a concentration of cases in the city center (59.87%) and an outbreak periodicity of 3–4 years, shortened by the introduction of new serotypes under favorable climatic conditions. A temporal association was found between incidence and high levels of rainfall and humidity, especially during the first six months of the year. The spatial risk stratification into three levels supports more targeted control actions in both time and space. Keywords: Dengue, Climate, Aedes, risk stratification.