Bayesian space-time SIR modeling of Covid-19 in two US states during the 2020–2021 pandemic

  1. Andrew B. Lawson
  2. Joanne Kim

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Abstract

This paper describes the Bayesian SIR modeling of the 3 waves of Covid-19 in two contrasting US states during 2020–2021. A variety of models are evaluated at the county level for goodness-of-fit and an assessment of confounding predictors is also made. It is found that models with three deprivation predictors and neighborhood effects are important. In addition, the work index from Google mobility was also found to provide an increased explanation of the transmission dynamics.

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  1. Version published to 10.1371/journal.pone.0278515
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.02.14.22270941v2 on medRxiv
  3. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.02.14.22270941: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  4. Version published to 10.1101/2022.02.14.22270941v1 on medRxiv