Mortality in Switzerland in 2021

  1. Isabella Locatelli
  2. Valentin Rousson

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Abstract

To analyze mortality trends in Switzerland in 2021, the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

Using data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, we compared mortality in Switzerland in 2021 with that of previous years in terms of standardized weekly deaths, standardized (annual) mortality rates (overall and stratified by age and sex) and life expectancy. The latter is a well-known demographic concept defining the average lifespan of a hypothetical cohort living and dying according to the mortality rates of a given year.

Results

After a favorable first half of the year and a fairly standard second half in terms of mortality in Switzerland, the year 2021 ended with a wave of deaths of moderate intensity related to the 5th wave of COVID-19. Overall, and after a notable increase in mortality in 2020 (+9.2%, 95%CI: +8.0%; +10.3%, compared to 2019, and +5.1%, 95%CI: +4.3%; +6.0%, compared to 2015–19), the pre-pandemic mortality level was approximately recovered in 2021 (+0.8%, 95%CI: -0.3%; +0.8%, compared to 2019, and -2.9%, 95%CI: -3.7%; -2.2%, compared to 2015–19). Life expectancy, after declining by 10 months for men and 6 months for women in 2020 (i.e. men would have lost 10 months and women 6 months had they lived their entire lives with COVID-19 as it was in 2020), returned in 2021 to 2019 levels for women (85.6 years) and regained 2018 levels for men (81.6 years, still -0.3 years from 2019). The age group responsible for the small remaining loss for men was the 50–70 age group, which had similar mortality in 2020 and 2021.

Conclusions

The second year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland was characterized by an approximate return to pre-pandemic mortality levels, with a faster recovery for women than for men with respect to 2020.

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  1. Version published to 10.1371/journal.pone.0274295
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.04.07.22273557: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    One limitation of this study is that it uses mortality data that are not yet finalized. However, as we have already noted, the number of deaths reported to date for 2021 is not far from being stabilized, and we believe that, in the situation of a pandemic still in progress, it is important to produce early estimates, even at the risk that they may not be completely accurate. We note, for example, that the estimates we provided one year ago for life expectancy in 2020 [9] proved to be quite close to those obtained when the finalized data became available (with a final discrepancy of only +0.4 months for men and +0.5 months for women) [10]. Thus, although we do not yet have fully definitive results, there is no doubt that mortality in Switzerland in 2021 has largely returned to its pre-pandemic level. An analysis of the possible reasons responsible for this favorable trend, including vaccination, more experience in treating the disease, improved patient management, harvesting effects, and the emergence of less virulent variants of the virus, is beyond the scope of this study.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No funding statement was detected.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2022.04.07.22273557v1 on medRxiv