COVID-19 is associated with higher risk of venous thrombosis, but not arterial thrombosis, compared with influenza: Insights from a large US cohort

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Abstract

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is typically compared with influenza to contextualize its health risks. SARS-CoV-2 has been linked with coagulation disturbances including arterial thrombosis, leading to considerable interest in antithrombotic therapy for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the independent thromboembolic risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with influenza remains incompletely understood. We evaluated the adjusted risks of thromboembolic events after a diagnosis of COVID-19 compared with influenza in a large retrospective cohort.

Methods

We used a US-based electronic health record (EHR) dataset linked with insurance claims to identify adults diagnosed with COVID-19 between April 1, 2020 and October 31, 2020. We identified influenza patients diagnosed between October 1, 2018 and April 31, 2019. Primary outcomes [venous composite of pulmonary embolism (PE) and acute deep vein thrombosis (DVT); arterial composite of ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction (MI)] and secondary outcomes were assessed 90 days post-diagnosis. Propensity scores (PS) were calculated using demographic, clinical, and medication variables. PS-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

There were 417,975 COVID-19 patients (median age 57y, 61% women), and 345,934 influenza patients (median age 47y, 66% women). Compared with influenza, patients with COVID-19 had higher venous thromboembolic risk (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.38–1.70), but not arterial thromboembolic risk (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.95–1.10). Secondary analyses demonstrated similar risk for ischemic stroke (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.98–1.25) and MI (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.85–1.03) and higher risk for DVT (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.19–1.56) and PE (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.57–2.10) in patients with COVID-19.

Conclusion

In a large retrospective US cohort, COVID-19 was independently associated with higher 90-day risk for venous thrombosis, but not arterial thrombosis, as compared with influenza. These findings may inform crucial knowledge gaps regarding the specific thromboembolic risks of COVID-19.

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2021.10.15.21264137: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Antibodies
    SentencesResources
    The following covariates were included in the regression model: age category, sex category, severity of infection, care setting of diagnosis, prior institutional stay, history of cardiovascular disease, venous thromboembolism, ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, peripheral arterial disease, diabetes, neurologic disease that promotes stasis/immobility, obesity, chronic kidney disease, cancer, COPD, rheumatic disease, antiphospholipid antibody syndrome, inherited thrombophilia, polycythemia, thrombocytosis, current pregnancy, alcohol abuse, current tobacco use, and use of anticoagulants, antiplatelets, statins, oral chemotherapeutics, oral contraceptives, estrogen replacement, or testosterone replacement.
    antiphospholipid
    suggested: None
    anticoagulants,
    suggested: None
    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Analytic partners aligned on a common protocol (the current study’s methodology was adapted from the Sentinel Initiative for the FDA Natural History of Coagulopathy in COVID-19 Study Synopsis and Statistical Analysis Plan [12,13]) and conducted analyses independently; methods and results were shared side-by-side to evaluate differences and similarities.
    Statistical Analysis Plan
    suggested: None
    Analysis was performed in Python 3.8.
    Python
    suggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Our study should be interpreted in the context of certain limitations. Participant-level race/ethnicity data were unavailable, preventing assessment of diverse patient representation and generalizability. Our cohort, although large, may not reflect populations across the United Status. As is inherent to observational data, unmeasured confounding may be present despite efforts to account for baseline characteristics. However, we aimed to characterize the potential impact of unmeasured confounding in an E-value analysis as shown in the Supplement. Death information was unavailable, so we were unable to directly treat death as a censoring event. However, we included the end of an individual’s claims record (i.e., the last day of a recorded claim or the last day of insurance enrollment) as a censoring event for follow-up - which should typically precede a death event - to minimize the possibility of missing a death event in an included patient. In conclusion, in a large retrospective cohort linking EHR and claims data of over 750,000 patients, we found that COVID-19 was independently associated with higher 90-day risk for venous thrombosis, but not arterial thrombosis, compared with influenza. Our work warrants expedited prospective validation to help clarify the precise nature of arterial and venous thromboembolic risks in COVID-19 and thus, the role of thromboprophylaxis in COVID-19 management.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No funding statement was detected.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.


    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.