Modelling the impact of interventions on the progress of the COVID-19 outbreak including age segregation

  1. Jorge Rodríguez
  2. Mauricio Patón
  3. Joao M. Uratani
  4. Juan M. Acuña

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Abstract

In this work, a SEIR-type mathematical model of the COVID-19 outbreak was developed that describes individuals in compartments by infection stage and age group. The model assumes a close well-mixed community with no migrations. Infection rates and clinical and epidemiological information govern the transitions between stages of the disease. The impact of specific interventions (including the availability of critical care) on the outbreak time course, the number of cases and the outcome of fatalities were evaluated. Data available from the COVID-19 outbreak from Spain as of mid-May 2020 was used. Key findings in our model simulation results indicate that (i) universal social isolation measures appear effective in reducing total fatalities only if they are strict and the number of daily interpersonal contacts is reduced to very low numbers; (ii) selective isolation of only the elderly (at higher fatality risk) appears almost as effective as universal isolation in reducing total fatalities but at a possible lower economic and social impact; (iii) an increase in the number of critical care capacity directly avoids fatalities; (iv) the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) appears to be effective to dramatically reduce total fatalities when adopted extensively and to a high degree; (v) extensive random testing of the population for more complete infection recognition (accompanied by subsequent self-isolation of infected aware individuals) can dramatically reduce the total fatalities only above a high percentage threshold that may not be practically feasible.

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  1. Version published to 10.1371/journal.pone.0248243
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.04.20053017v3 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.04.20053017v2 on medRxiv
  4. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.04.20053017: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  5. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.04.20053017v1 on medRxiv