Study on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the effects of control measures in China

  1. Bo Zhang
  2. Hongwei Zhou
  3. Fang Zhou

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Abstract

To reconstruct the transmission trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 and analyze the effects of control measures in China.

Methods

Python 3.7.1 was used to write a SEIR class to model the epidemic procedure and proportional estimation method to estimate the initial true infected number. The epidemic area in China was divided into three parts, Wuhan city, Hubei province (except Wuhan) and China (except Hubei) based on the different transmission pattern. A testing capacity limitation factor for medical resources was imposed to model the number of infected but not quarantined individuals. Baidu migration data were used to assess the number of infected individuals who migrated from Wuhan to other areas.

Results

Basic reproduction number, R 0 , was 3.6 before the city was lockdown on Jan 23, 2020. The actual infected number the model predicted was 4508 in Wuhan before Jan 23, 2020. By January 22 2020, it was estimated that 1764 infected cases migrated from Wuhan to other cities in Hubei province. Effective reproductive number, R, gradually decreased from 3.6 (Wuhan), 3.4 (Hubei except Wuhan,) and 3.3 (China except Hubei) in stage 1 (from Dec 08, 2019 to Jan 22, 2020) to 0.67 (Wuhan), 0.59 (Hubei except Wuhan) and 0.63 (China except Hubei) respectively. Especially after January 23, 2020 when Wuhan City was closed, the infected number showed a turning point in Wuhan. By early April, there would be 42073 (95% confidence interval, 41673 to 42475), 21342 (95% confidence interval, 21057 to 21629) and 13384 (95% confidence interval, 13158 to 13612) infected cases in Wuhan, Hubei (except Wuhan) and China (except Hubei), respectively.

Conclusion

A series of control measures in China have effectively prevented the spread of COVID-19, and the epidemic should be under control in early April with very few new cases occasionally reported.

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  1. Version published to 10.1371/journal.pone.0242649
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.16.20023770: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Python 3.7.1 was used to write a SEIR class to model the epidemic procedure and a back propagation class to estimate the initial true infected number.
    Python
    suggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    In this study, we built SEIR models with a medical resource limitation factor that model the maximum number of people could be treated and isolated. We used a back propagation model to estimate the number of potential infections, and divided the epidemic area into three parts, Wuhan, Hubei (except Wuhan) and China (except Hubei) based on the different transmission pattern. In our study, we believed that COVID-19 has a R0 value of 3.6, the spread of SARS-COV-2 in China was effectively suppressed and the epidemic will end in early April. According to the worldwide public reports of various media, Chinese People, governments at all levels have taken active measures to control the spread of COVID-19. According to our research, these measures effectively controlled the spread of COVID-19. The following measures have important reference significances for the control of infectious diseases may occur in the future. On December 31, 2019, the NHC expert group arrived in Wuhan to carry out the relevant testing and verification work. On January 01, 2020, Wuhan City shut down the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. On January 07, 2020, the NHC expert group initially identified the pathogen in these unexplained cases of viral pneumonia as a novel coronavirus. On January 20, 2020, Chinese government issued important instructions saying that the recent outbreak of pneumonia with novel coronavirus infection in Wuhan City, Hubei Province must be given great attention and all efforts to prevent an...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.16.20023770v1 on medRxiv