ICU admissions and in-hospital deaths linked to COVID-19 in the Paris region are correlated with previously observed ambient temperature

Abstract

The purpose of this ecological study was to explore the association of weather with severity indicators of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Daily COVID-19-related intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and in-hospital deaths in the Paris region and the daily weather characteristics of Paris midtown were correlated with a time lag. We assessed different study periods (41, 45, 50, 55, and 62 days) beginning from 31 March 2020. Daily ICU admissions and in-hospital deaths were strongly and negatively correlated to ambient temperatures (minimal, average, and maximal). The highest Pearson correlation coefficients and statistically significant p values were found 8 days before the occurrence of ICU admissions and 15 days before deaths. Partial correlations with adjustment on days since lockdown showed similar significant results. The study findings show a negative correlation of previously observed ambient temperature with severity indicators of COVID-19 that could partly explain the death toll discrepancies between and within countries.

SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.10.20150508: (What is this?)

Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

Table 1: Rigor

Institutional Review Board Statement	not detected.
Randomization	not detected.
Blinding	not detected.
Power Analysis	not detected.
Sex as a biological variable	not detected.

Table 2: Resources

No key resources detected.

Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:

Strengths and limitations: Our study has several strengths. We were able to study reliable data as in-hospital deaths are electronically centralized in France. Lockdown was uniformly applied in France, and was respected by the population, allowing a period of stabilization in April and May. Our study also has some limitations. First, we chose not to study the effect of humidity, which varies more than temperature (between 40% and 90%), depending on the location within the Paris region. Second, the study period is limited to 2 months, but the natural course of this outbreak in France does not allow a longer period as it lasted for only 3 months and the number of infections is currently low. Finally, our conclusions are valid mainly for temperate countries of the northern hemisphere with a highly developed and universal health system.

Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

Results from rtransparent:

Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
No protocol registration statement was detected.

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ICU admissions and in-hospital deaths linked to COVID-19 in the Paris region are correlated with previously observed ambient temperature

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