Appropriate relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions minimizes the risk of a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections in spite of the Delta variant
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Abstract
We analyze the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under an increasing number of vaccinations in Germany. For the spread of SARS-CoV-2 we employ a SIR-type model that accounts for age-dependence and includes realistic contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of NPIs occurs on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. We account for spatial heterogeneity and commuting activities in between regions in Germany, and the testing of commuters is considered as a further NPI. We include the ongoing vaccination process and analyze the effect of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, which is considered to be 40%–60% more infectious then the currently dominant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. We explore different opening scenarios under the ongoing vaccination process by assuming that local restrictions are either lifted in early July or August with or without continued wearing of masks and testing. Our results indicate that we can counteract the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 despite the Delta variant with appropriate timing for the relaxation of NPIs. In all cases, however, school children are hit the hardest.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.09.21260257: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitations of our approach include the assumptions that we have to make for the Delta variant. Our models do not account for lower efficacy of the vaccine in protecting against the Delta variant. Due to the much higher transmission, the new Delta variant …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.09.21260257: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitations of our approach include the assumptions that we have to make for the Delta variant. Our models do not account for lower efficacy of the vaccine in protecting against the Delta variant. Due to the much higher transmission, the new Delta variant will have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic but more real-world data is required to exactly quantify Delta’s contribution. Furthermore, we do not model testing of pupils or general individuals. We restrict this to the commuters who have a high chance of spreading the virus from one region in Germany to another. This approximates the testing of the working community in Germany. Due to the summer holidays, the testing of pupils is less relevant. Furthermore, we do not consider border regions, i.e., the impact of systematically higher incidences in a neighbouring country. We also cannot account for all travelling activities during the holidays. Some parameters in our model require further investigation; after each dose we assume a time period of three weeks for the effect of vaccination to take hold which is quite conservative as other studies show effects after two weeks [28] or even after 6-8 days [29]. Further, the 100% immunity after the second vaccination is also only an approximation that we need to relax for the Delta variant, and we need to investigate its influence. The reduction factors for the infection risks after each dose need to be further evaluated for the different vaccine varieties and adopted ac...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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