Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
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Abstract
Statement: Starting in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented humanitarian crisis with millions of deaths worldwide. In “Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions“, M. L. Li, H. Tazi Bouardi, O. Skali Lami, T. Trikalinos, N. Trichakis, and D. Bertsimas proposed a novel epidemiological model, DELPHI, that combined a novel modeling of government interventions, nonlinear optimization, and compartmental epidemiology models to forecast COVID-19 spread. They used DELPHI to demonstrate how lockdowns reduced the transmission by nearly 80%, whereas earlier societal action could have saved more than 75% of the lives lost in many countries. They also created a scenario analysis toolkit that utilized DELPHI’s modeling of interventions to generate “what if” scenarios under different future interventions. Janssen Pharmaceuticals utilized this toolkit to select optimized locations for the Phase III trial of their COVID-19 vaccine, leading to a trial acceleration of 8 weeks and saving thousands of lives.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.23.20138693: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.23.20138693: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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