Tracking Excess Deaths (TRACKED) – an interactive online tool to monitor excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom

  1. Michael T. C. Poon
  2. Paul M. Brennan
  3. Kai Jin
  4. Jonine D. Figueroa
  5. Cathie L. M. Sudlow

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Abstract

Background: We aimed to describe trends of excess mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) stratified by nation and cause of death, and to develop an online tool for reporting the most up to date data on excess mortality

Methods: Population statistics agencies in the UK including the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publish weekly mortality data. We used mortality data up to 22 nd May in the ONS and the NISRA and 24 th May in the NRS. The main outcome measures were crude mortality for non-COVID deaths (where there is no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate) calculated, and excess mortality defined as difference between observed mortality and expected average of mortality from previous 5 years.

Results: There were 56,961 excess deaths, of which 8,986 were non-COVID excess deaths. England had the highest number of excess deaths per 100,000 population (85) and Northern Ireland the lowest (34). Non-COVID mortality increased from 23 rd March and returned to the 5-year average on 10 th May. In Scotland, where underlying cause mortality data besides COVID-related deaths was available, the percentage excess over the 8-week period when COVID-related mortality peaked was: dementia 49%, other causes 21%, circulatory diseases 10%, and cancer 5%. We developed an online tool (TRACKing Excess Deaths - TRACKED) to allow dynamic exploration and visualisation of the latest mortality trends.

Conclusions: Continuous monitoring of excess mortality trends and further integration of age- and gender-stratified and underlying cause of death data beyond COVID-19 will allow dynamic assessment of the impacts of indirect and direct mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.05.20121962: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Limitations: First, variable delays in registration of deaths are likely to affect these data. For example, 17% and 27% of deaths were registered more than 7 days after date of death during 2018 in Wales and England, respectively.15 Completeness increased to 92% by 1 month. The current data release lag of 2 weeks by the ONS allows better capture of deaths, though incompleteness is still likely to be about 10%. In Scotland, death registration is more timely (95% within 8 days)16 because of legislation that requires it.17 Whether the COVID-19 pandemic has affected registration delay is currently unknown. Hence, deaths are under-reported and the mortality data used in our analyses provisional, but registries will continue to update their data. Our online tool uses the latest data, incorporating revisions as well as the latest available mortality data. Second, the current data release does not include age-standardisation or stratification for cause-specific deaths. Should these become available, we will enhance our online tool to provide further information on these. Third, the NRS may under-report mortality data because it does not include deaths occurring outside Scotland. However, the effect of this will be minimised by the full suppression lockdown strategy as most people stay at their usual residence. Fourth, the causes of deaths provided by the NRS are broad and do not allow the identification of high-risk groups most susceptible to the indirect impact of COVID-19. For exam...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16058.2
  3. Version published to 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16058.1
  4. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.05.20121962 on medRxiv