First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast
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Abstract
Background
The first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the world. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service.
Methods
We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative log-logistic distribution.
Results
A total of 101,739 infected individuals were confirmed until 30 March 2020, of which 14,620 recovered or discharged, and 11,591 deaths. Until the same date patients quarantined at home were 43,752, whereas hospitalized patients were 31,776, of which 3981 in intensive care. The active cases (i.e. the number of patients not yet recovered until that date) were 75,528. The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 234,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic of approximately 4 months.
Conclusions
One month after the first outbreaks there seemed to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic. The pandemic due to novel Coronavirus must be a warning for all countries worldwide, regarding a rapid and complete dissemination of information, surveillance, health organization, and cooperation among the states.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.26.20044628: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources The graphics were obtained using the ggplot2 package of R. ggplot2suggested: (ggplot2, RRID:SCR_014601)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:It is also necessary to consider the intrinsic limitations of this study. First of all, data was not always updated on a daily basis by each Regional Authority. Moreover, we have to consider that the number of infected …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.26.20044628: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources The graphics were obtained using the ggplot2 package of R. ggplot2suggested: (ggplot2, RRID:SCR_014601)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:It is also necessary to consider the intrinsic limitations of this study. First of all, data was not always updated on a daily basis by each Regional Authority. Moreover, we have to consider that the number of infected people is underestimated, since there are many undetected asymptomatic individuals. In addition to this, many individuals died without the possibility of checking if they were actually infected and therefore not recorded as such. Finally, the factors that determine the trend of the epidemic could change without respecting the symmetry of the forecasted model.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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