Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study
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Abstract
Background
To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions.
Methods
Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020–2021.
Results
We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages.
Conclusions
Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.09.21260277: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:While there are several caveats of the modelling to consider in the interpretation of this analysis, this is the first analysis of disease dynamics for norovirus affected by changes in NPIs. More broadly, the unintended consequences of NPIs are likely to be widespread across other endemic diseases (eg. respiratory syncytial virus and …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.09.21260277: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:While there are several caveats of the modelling to consider in the interpretation of this analysis, this is the first analysis of disease dynamics for norovirus affected by changes in NPIs. More broadly, the unintended consequences of NPIs are likely to be widespread across other endemic diseases (eg. respiratory syncytial virus and influenza) where incidence pre-COVID-19 was limited by populations being largely immune to infection [33, 34]. A challenge in interpretation of the likely future trajectory of incidence is quantification of how NPI impact physical contacts in the community and consequently how this impacts transmission of infectious disease. Here we make use of the longitudinal cross-sectional study of contacts, which has been instrumental in quantifying incidence of COVID-19 [35], and show that these data can be very useful for quantifying dynamics of endemic diseases in addition to COVID-19. Continued collection of these data and incorporation into models of infectious disease will be instrumental in informing our understanding of disease transmission as the pandemic continues to unfold. Our analyses make the implicit assumption that contacts described within surveys correlate with contacts relevant for infectious disease transmission where the primary mode is direct contact; while this is apparent for infections such as ‘flu and SARS-CoV-2, there is less evidence for norovirus. The reported incidence of norovirus in the coming months, the changing behaviours o...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No funding statement was detected.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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