Patterns of multimorbidity and risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection: an observational study in the U.K.
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Abstract
Background
Pre-existing comorbidities have been linked to SARS-CoV-2 infection but evidence is sparse on the importance and pattern of multimorbidity (2 or more conditions) and severity of infection indicated by hospitalisation or mortality. We aimed to use a multimorbidity index developed specifically for COVID-19 to investigate the association between multimorbidity and risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Methods
We used data from the UK Biobank linked to laboratory confirmed test results for SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality data from Public Health England between March 16 and July 26, 2020. By reviewing the current literature on COVID-19 we derived a multimorbidity index including: (1) angina; (2) asthma; (3) atrial fibrillation; (4) cancer; (5) chronic kidney disease; (6) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; (7) diabetes mellitus; (8) heart failure; (9) hypertension; (10) myocardial infarction; (11) peripheral vascular disease; (12) stroke. Adjusted logistic regression models were used to assess the association between multimorbidity and risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection (hospitalisation/death). Potential effect modifiers of the association were assessed: age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, smoking status, body mass index, air pollution, 25‐hydroxyvitamin D, cardiorespiratory fitness, high sensitivity C-reactive protein.
Results
Among 360,283 participants, the median age was 68 [range 48–85] years, most were White (94.5%), and 1706 had severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. The prevalence of multimorbidity was more than double in those with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection (25%) compared to those without (11%), and clusters of several multimorbidities were more common in those with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. The most common clusters with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection were stroke with hypertension (79% of those with stroke had hypertension); diabetes and hypertension (72%); and chronic kidney disease and hypertension (68%). Multimorbidity was independently associated with a greater risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.91 [95% confidence interval 1.70, 2.15] compared to no multimorbidity). The risk remained consistent across potential effect modifiers, except for greater risk among older age. The highest risk of severe infection was strongly evidenced in those with CKD and diabetes (4.93 [95% CI 3.36, 7.22]).
Conclusion
The multimorbidity index may help identify individuals at higher risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes and provide guidance for tailoring effective treatment.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.21.20216721: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement Consent: Written informed consent was obtained prior to data collection; UK Biobank was approved by the NHS National Research Ethics Service (16/NW/0274; ethics approval for UK Biobank studies).[18] SARS-CoV-2 laboratory confirmed test results and death data for all-cause mortality from Public Health England were linked to the UK Biobank database.[19] Data were available between March 16 and July 26, 2020, restricted to those tested in a hospital (pillar 1), since this can be regarded as a proxy for hospitalisations for severe cases of the disease as suggested by the linkage methodology.[19] Our analytical sample included study participants from England as … SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.21.20216721: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement Consent: Written informed consent was obtained prior to data collection; UK Biobank was approved by the NHS National Research Ethics Service (16/NW/0274; ethics approval for UK Biobank studies).[18] SARS-CoV-2 laboratory confirmed test results and death data for all-cause mortality from Public Health England were linked to the UK Biobank database.[19] Data were available between March 16 and July 26, 2020, restricted to those tested in a hospital (pillar 1), since this can be regarded as a proxy for hospitalisations for severe cases of the disease as suggested by the linkage methodology.[19] Our analytical sample included study participants from England as testing was available and linked, we therefore excluded study members from Scotland and Wales, participants who had an outpatient test positive for COVID-19 (pillar 2) as the outcome for SARS-CoV-2 infection was uncertain (i.e. recovered, hospitalised at a later stage, or died), those who died before March 16, 2020, and those with missing data (Additional file: Figure S1). Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Written informed consent was obtained prior to data collection; UK Biobank was approved by the NHS National Research Ethics Service (16/NW/0274; ethics approval for UK Biobank studies).[18] SARS-CoV-2 laboratory confirmed test results and death data for all-cause mortality from Public Health England were linked to the UK Biobank database.[19] Data were available between March 16 and July 26, 2020, restricted to those tested in a hospital (pillar 1), since this can be regarded as a proxy for hospitalisations for severe cases of the disease as suggested by the linkage methodology.[19] Our analytical sample included study participants from England as testing was available and linked, we therefore excluded study members from Scotland and Wales, participants who had an outpatient test positive for COVID-19 (pillar 2) as the outcome for SARS-CoV-2 infection was uncertain (i.e. recovered, hospitalised at a later stage, or died), those who died before March 16, 2020, and those with missing data (Additional file: Figure S1). Biobanksuggested: (HIV Biobank, RRID:SCR_004691)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Moreover, we performed a literature review to derive an evidence based COVID-19 relevant multimorbidity index which can be applied to other populations.[5-8, 20-29] This study has some limitations. Issues of the low response rate (∼5%) and selection bias, such as slightly higher representation of participants from affluent groups may suggest that the UK Biobank sample is not well representative of the UK population, and have been discussed previously.[36] However, participants may not need to be representative of the target populations when estimating relative risks, as empirically demonstrated for UK Biobank.[37] The characteristics we examined were recorded at recruitment, representing data collected in the past at study baseline, but we conducted additional sensitivity analyses using the follow-up data for 25‐hydroxyvitamin D levels and the last recorded air pollution (NO2) data, showing consistent results over time. The data on multimorbidity were appraised only at baseline but there may have been a change in the number of multimorbidity index conditions since recruitment which were not accounted for and may lead to under or overestimation of effect. We were unable to assess the severity of disease conditions but our new multimorbidity index definition included conditions that were most relevant to COVID-19. Another limitation is the lack of detail of clinical severity of those with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection: while we have accounted for hospitalisation or death during t...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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