Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses: a retrospective cohort study

  1. on behalf of the Seattle Flu Study Investigators
  2. Michael L. Jackson
  3. Gregory R. Hart
  4. Denise J. McCulloch
  5. Amanda Adler
  6. Elisabeth Brandstetter
  7. Kairsten Fay
  8. Peter Han
  9. Kirsten Lacombe
  10. Jover Lee
  11. Thomas R. Sibley
  12. Deborah A. Nickerson
  13. Mark J. Rieder
  14. Lea Starita
  15. Janet A. Englund
  16. Trevor Bedford
  17. Helen Chu
  18. Michael Famulare

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Abstract

Background

Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses.

Methods

Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits.

Results

Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase.

Conclusion

High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.

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  1. Version published to 10.1186/s12879-021-06028-4
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.02.20027599: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.02.20027599 on medRxiv