Population-based seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and the herd immunity threshold in Maranhão
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. METHODS: A population-based household survey was performed, from July 27, 2020 to August 8, 2020. The estimates considered clustering, stratification and non-response. Qualitative detection of IgM and IgG antibodies was performed in a fully-automated Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 electrochemiluminescence immunoassay on the Cobas® e601 analyzer (Roche Diagnostics). RESULTS: In total, 3,156 individuals were interviewed. Seroprevalence of total antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was 40.4% (95%CI 35.6-45.3). Population adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions was higher at the beginning of the pandemic than in the last month. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were significantly lower among mask wearers and among those who maintained social and physical distancing in the last month compared to their counterparts. Among the infected, 26.0% were asymptomatic. The infection fatality rate (IFR) was 0.14%, higher for men and older adults. The IFR based on excess deaths was 0.28%. The ratio of estimated infections to reported cases was 22.2. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 estimated in this population-based survey is one of the highest reported. The local herd immunity threshold may have been reached or might be reached soon.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.28.20180463: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources SARS-CoV-2 antibodies detection: For the qualitative determination of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, 5·0 ml of whole blood was collected, and after centrifugation at 1800 g for 15 min, the serum was obtained. SARS-CoV-2suggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are some limitations: for some estimates, the confidence intervals were wide, and thus our power …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.28.20180463: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources SARS-CoV-2 antibodies detection: For the qualitative determination of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, 5·0 ml of whole blood was collected, and after centrifugation at 1800 g for 15 min, the serum was obtained. SARS-CoV-2suggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are some limitations: for some estimates, the confidence intervals were wide, and thus our power to detect statistically significant associations was lower than desired; some population groups (males and people of working age) were underrepresented in our sample.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.28.20180463: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources Qualitative detection of IgM and IgG antibodies was performed in a fully-automated Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 electrochemiluminescence immunoassay on the Cobas® e601 analyser (Roche Diagnostics) IgGsuggested: NoneQuestions on the use of health services included if the individual looked for health services, received care when seeking health services, was hospitalized for over 24 hours, received a medical diagnosis of suspected COVID-19, performed RT-PCR for SARSCoV-2, and performed an … SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.28.20180463: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources Qualitative detection of IgM and IgG antibodies was performed in a fully-automated Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 electrochemiluminescence immunoassay on the Cobas® e601 analyser (Roche Diagnostics) IgGsuggested: NoneQuestions on the use of health services included if the individual looked for health services, received care when seeking health services, was hospitalized for over 24 hours, received a medical diagnosis of suspected COVID-19, performed RT-PCR for SARSCoV-2, and performed an antibody test– point-of-care/serology for SARS-CoV-2. SARSCoV-2suggested: NoneSARS-CoV-2 antibodies detection For the qualitative determination of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, 5·0 ml of whole blood was collected, and after centrifugation at 1800 g for 15 min, the serum was obtained. SARS-CoV-2suggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
There are some limitations: for some estimates, the confidence intervals were wide, and thus our power to detect statistically significant associations was lower than desired; some population groups (males and people of working age) were underrepresented in our sample. Contributors Antônio A M Silva, Lídio G Lima-Neto, Conceição M P S Azevedo, Léa M Costa, Maylla L B M Bragança, Allan K D B Filho, Bernardo B Wittlin, Bruno L C A Oliveira, Carolina A Carvalho, Erika B A F Thomaz, Eudes A Simões-Neto, Jamesson F Leite-Júnior, Marcos A G Campos, Rejane C S Queiroz, Vitória A Carvalho, Vanda M F Simões, Maria T S B Alves and Alcione M Santos contributed to the conception and design of the work, the acquisition, analysis, and interpretation of the data, and the draft of the manuscript. Bruno F Souza, Sérgio S Costa and Lécia M S Cosme contributed to the acquisition and analysis of the data. All authors have approved the submitted version. Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
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