Predictive Immunological, Virological, and Routine Laboratory Markers for Critical COVID-19 on Admission

  1. Mercedes García-Gasalla
  2. Juana M. Ferrer
  3. Pablo A. Fraile-Ribot
  4. Adrián Ferre-Beltrán
  5. Adrián Rodríguez
  6. Natalia Martínez-Pomar
  7. Luisa Ramon-Clar
  8. Amanda Iglesias
  9. Inés Losada-López
  10. Francisco Fanjul
  11. Joan Albert Pou
  12. Isabel Llompart-Alabern
  13. Nuria Toledo
  14. Jaime Pons
  15. Antonio Oliver
  16. Melchor Riera
  17. Javier Murillas

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Abstract

Background. Early identification of COVID-19 patients at risk of critical illness is a challenging endeavor for clinicians. We aimed to establish immunological, virological, and routine laboratory markers, which, in combination with clinical information, may allow identifying such patients. Methods. Blood tests to measure neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and levels of ferritin, CRP, D-dimer, complement components (C3 and C4), cytokines, and lymphocyte subsets, as well as SARS-Cov-2 RT-PCR tests, were performed in COVID-19-confirmed cases within 48 hours of admission. RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from oropharyngeal or nasopharyngeal swabs were determined on the day of admission. Symptom severity was categorized as mild (grade 1), severe (grade 2), or critical (grade 3). Results. Of 120 patients who were included, 49 had mild, 32 severe, and 39 critical COVID-19. Levels of ferritin >370 ng/mL (OR 16.4, 95% CI 5.3–50.8), D-dimer >440 ng/mL (OR 5.45, 95% CI 2.36–12.61), CRP >7.65 mg/dL (OR 11.54, 95% CI 4.3–30.8), NLR >3.77 (OR 13.4, 95% CI 4.3–41.1), IL-6 >142.5 pg/mL (OR 8.76, 95% CI 3.56–21.54), IL-10 >10.8 pg/mL (OR 16.45, 95% CI 5.32–50.81), sIL-2rα (sCD25) >804.5 pg/mL (OR 14.06, 95% CI 4.56–43.28), IL-1Ra >88.4 pg/mL (OR 4.54, 95% CI 2.03–10.17), and IL-18 >144 pg/mL (OR 17.85, 95% CI 6.54–48.78) were associated with critical COVID-19 in the univariate age-adjusted analysis. This association was confirmed in the multivariate age-adjusted analysis only for ferritin, CRP, NLR, IL-10, sIL-2rα, and IL-18. T, B, and NK cells were significantly decreased in critical patients. SARS-CoV-2 was not detected in blood except in 3 patients who had indeterminate results. RT-PCR Ct values from oropharyngeal or nasopharyngeal swabs on admission were not related to symptom severity. Conclusion. Ferritin, D-dimer, CRP, NLR, cytokine (IL-18 and IL-10), and cytokine receptor (IL-6, IL1-Ra, and sCD25) test results combined with clinical data can contribute to the early identification of critical COVID-19 patients.

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  1. Version published to 10.1155/2021/9965850
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.17.21253816: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) version 22.0 software (SPSS Inc.).
    Statistical Package for the Social Sciences
    suggested: (SPSS, RRID:SCR_002865)
    SPSS
    suggested: (SPSS, RRID:SCR_002865)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Our study has some important limitations: it took place in a very specific geographic area (two hospitals in the Mediterranean island of Majorca), and the number of patients is small. In addition, patients were admitted at different times during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and received different therapies, which may have altered the outcomes. In conclusion, ferritin, D-dimer, CRP, NLR, and cytokines and cytokine receptors IL-6, IL-1Ra, sIL-2rα (sCD25), IL-18, and IL-10 contribute, in association with clinical data, to the early identification of patients at risk of critical COVID-19 and susceptible of a more intensive therapy. Further studies evaluating these biomarkers and their ability for predicting critical COVID-19 are needed.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.03.17.21253816 on medRxiv