Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

  1. Ahmed Msmali
  2. Mutum Zico
  3. Idir Mechai
  4. Abdullah Ahmadini

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Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting the health system and economy of more than 200 countries worldwide. Mathematical models are used to predict the biological and epidemiological tendencies of an epidemic and to develop methods for controlling it. In this work, we use a mathematical model perspective to study the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. The real-time updated data from March 2, 2020, to January 8, 2021, were collected from the Saudi Ministry of Health, aiming to provide dynamic behaviors of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. During this period, 363,692 people were infected, resulting in 6293 deaths, with a mortality rate of 1.73%. There was a weak positive relationship between the spread of infection and mortality R 2 = 0.459 . We used the susceptible-exposed-infection-recovered (SEIR) model, a logistic growth model, with a special focus on the exposed, infected, and recovered individuals to simulate the final phase of the outbreak. The results indicate that social distancing, hygienic conditions, and travel limitations are crucial measures to prevent further spread of the epidemic.

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  1. Version published to 10.1155/2021/5522928
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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.17.21249837: (What is this?)

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    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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    The spreading phase of coronavirus has gradually slow down due to various control measure such as lockdown and limitation of traveling. It is highly contagious due to its biological characteristics [31]. The infected people can transmit the disease before they show clinical symptoms and it is contagious. This is one of the main reasons that the virus could swiftly spread from Wuhan city, China to rest of the world and in Saudi Arabia. However, the Ministry of Health (MOH), Saudi Arabia has taken various precautionary measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Some of the preventive measures taken by MOH are as follows; (1) providing COVID center help line number 937 and suspension of entry into Saudi Arabia for Umrah, (2) ceasing to issue visas individuals coming from countries that had already been affected by COVID-19, (3) banning citizen of Gulf countries entering two holy cities Makkah and Almadinah, (4) more than twenty five hospitals all over Saudi Arabia were addressed COVID-19 cases, (5) massive campaigns for awareness in public places and educational organizations [32]. All these preventive and precautions played an important role in limiting the spread of COVID-19 infection in Saudi Arabia. Also, the number of death rate as compare with the other countries is very low, which might be due to good care of infected patients in hospitals in Saudi Arabia. Recently, the outbreak of the new mutated coronavirus variant has been identified in UK. The health secretary of UK ...

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.01.17.21249837v1 on medRxiv