Deep recurrent reinforced learning model to compare the efficacy of targeted local versus national measures on the spread of COVID-19 in the UK

  1. Tim Dong
  2. Umberto Benedetto
  3. Shubhra Sinha
  4. Daniel Fudulu
  5. Arnaldo Dimagli
  6. Jeremy Chan
  7. Massimo Caputo
  8. Gianni Angelini

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Abstract

To prevent the emergence of new waves of COVID-19 caseload and associated mortalities, it is imperative to understand better the efficacy of various control measures on the national and local development of this pandemic in space–time, characterise hotspot regions of high risk, quantify the impact of under-reported measures such as international travel and project the likely effect of control measures in the coming weeks.

Methods

We applied a deep recurrent reinforced learning based model to evaluate and predict the spatiotemporal effect of a combination of control measures on COVID-19 cases and mortality at the local authority (LA) and national scale in England, using data from week 5 to 46 of 2020, including an expert curated control measure matrix, official statistics/government data and a secure web dashboard to vary magnitude of control measures.

Results

Model predictions of the number of cases and mortality of COVID-19 in the upcoming 5 weeks closely matched the actual values (cases: root mean squared error (RMSE): 700.88, mean absolute error (MAE): 453.05, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE): 0.46, correlation coefficient 0.42; mortality: RMSE 14.91, MAE 10.05, MAPE 0.39, correlation coefficient 0.68). Local lockdown with social distancing (LD_SD) (overall rank 3) was found to be ineffective in preventing outbreak rebound following lockdown easing compared with national lockdown (overall rank 2), based on prediction using simulated control measures. The ranking of the effectiveness of adjunctive measures for LD_SD were found to be consistent across hotspot and non-hotspot regions. Adjunctive measures found to be most effective were international travel and quarantine restrictions.

Conclusions

This study highlights the importance of using adjunctive measures in addition to LD_SD following lockdown easing and suggests the potential importance of controlling international travel and applying travel quarantines. Further work is required to assess the effect of variant strains and vaccination measures.

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  1. Version published to 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-048279
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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.05.21.20248630: (What is this?)

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    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.05.21.20248630v1 on medRxiv