Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant
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Abstract
The United Kingdom has high rates of vaccination for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), exceeding 80% of adults. As immunity wanes and social distancing is relaxed, how are rates of illness and severe disease affected by more infectious variants? Elliott et al . used reverse transcription PCR data from the REACT-1 study, which showed exponential transmission as the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was replaced by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2). After adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for the new variant averaged 55% in June and July of 2020. Despite the slower growth of the pandemic in the summer, it looks as if increased indoor mixing in the autumn will sustain transmission of the Delta variant despite high levels of adult vaccination. —CA
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.02.21262979: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Our study has limitations. Our primary estimate of effectiveness was based on self-reported vaccine status, because we could only obtain linked vaccination data for the subset of participants who gave consent and that group appeared to have different patterns of swab-positivity across the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Over the course of the study since round 1 in May 2020, towards the end of the first lockdown in England, we have …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.02.21262979: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Our study has limitations. Our primary estimate of effectiveness was based on self-reported vaccine status, because we could only obtain linked vaccination data for the subset of participants who gave consent and that group appeared to have different patterns of swab-positivity across the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Over the course of the study since round 1 in May 2020, towards the end of the first lockdown in England, we have observed a gradual reduction in response rates, from 30.5% in round 1 to 11.7% in round 13. These rates are conservative estimates since they are based on numbers of swabs with a valid RT-PCR result compared to the total number of letters of invitation sent out, some of which may have been returned, sent to the wrong address or left unopened by the recipient. Nonetheless, the drop in response rates means that our sample may be becoming less representative, particularly in some groups such as young people (18 to 24 years) and those living in the most deprived areas where response rates have fallen to 4.2% and 5.1% respectively. It should be noted, however, that these response rates have been achieved without use of financial or other incentives. Our method of sampling was designed initially to achieve sufficient numbers in each lower-tier local authority (LTLA) in England so that we could analyse sub-regional trends and also, by weighting the sample, provide estimates of prevalence that were representative of the population of England. While pre...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We found bar graphs of continuous data. We recommend replacing bar graphs with more informative graphics, as many different datasets can lead to the same bar graph. The actual data may suggest different conclusions from the summary statistics. For more information, please see Weissgerber et al (2015).
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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