Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus
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Abstract
Limited initial supply of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine raises the question of how to prioritize available doses. We used a mathematical model to compare five age-stratified prioritization strategies. A highly effective transmission-blocking vaccine prioritized to adults ages 20 to 49 years minimized cumulative incidence, but mortality and years of life lost were minimized in most scenarios when the vaccine was prioritized to adults greater than 60 years old. Use of individual-level serological tests to redirect doses to seronegative individuals improved the marginal impact of each dose while potentially reducing existing inequities in COVID-19 impact. Although maximum impact prioritization strategies were broadly consistent across countries, transmission rates, vaccination rollout speeds, and estimates of naturally acquired immunity, this framework can be used to compare impacts of prioritization strategies across contexts.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.08.20190629: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Our study is subject to a number of limitations. First, our evaluation strategy focuses on a single country at a time, rather than on between-population allocation (45). Second, we only consider variation in disease severity by age. However, other factors correlate with disease outcomes, such as treatment and healthcare access and …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.08.20190629: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Our study is subject to a number of limitations. First, our evaluation strategy focuses on a single country at a time, rather than on between-population allocation (45). Second, we only consider variation in disease severity by age. However, other factors correlate with disease outcomes, such as treatment and healthcare access and comorbidities, which may correlate with factors like rural vs urban location, socioeconomic status, sex (46, 47), and race and ethnicity (48), that are not accounted for in this study. Inclusion of these factors in a model would be possible, but only with statistically sound measurements of both their stratified infection risk, contact rates, and disease outcomes. Even in the case of age stratification, contact surveys have typically not surveyed those 80 years and older, yet it is this population that suffers dramatically more severe COVID-19 disease and higher infection fatality rates. We extrapolated contact matrices to those older than 80, but direct measurements would be superior. Last, our study focused on guiding strategy rather than providing more detailed forecasting or estimates (10). As such, we have not made detailed parameter fits to time series of cases or deaths, but rather have used epidemiologic models to identify robust strategies across a range of transmission scenarios. Our study also considers variation in disease risk only by age, via age-structured contact matrices and age-specific susceptibility, while many discussions around...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.
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