Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19
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Abstract
Early in 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission was curbed in many countries by imposing combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions. Sufficient data on transmission have now accumulated to discern the effectiveness of individual interventions. Brauner et al. amassed and curated data from 41 countries as input to a model to identify the individual nonpharmaceutical interventions that were the most effective at curtailing transmission during the early pandemic. Limiting gatherings to fewer than 10 people, closing high-exposure businesses, and closing schools and universities were each more effective than stay-at-home orders, which were of modest effect in slowing transmission.
Science , this issue p. eabd9338
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This limitation likely also holds for other observational studies which do not include data on university closures and estimate only the effect of school closures1–3,5–8. Previous evidence on school and university closures is mixed1,6,26. Early data suggest that children and young adults are equally susceptible to infection but have a notably lower observed incidence rate than older adults—whether this is due to school and university …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This limitation likely also holds for other observational studies which do not include data on university closures and estimate only the effect of school closures1–3,5–8. Previous evidence on school and university closures is mixed1,6,26. Early data suggest that children and young adults are equally susceptible to infection but have a notably lower observed incidence rate than older adults—whether this is due to school and university closures remains unknown27–30. Although infected young people are often asymptomatic, they appear to shed similar amounts of virus as older people31,32, and might therefore transmit the infection to higher-risk demographics unknowingly. As the role of children in transmission is still unclear33 while outbreaks detected in schools are rising33–35, this topic merits careful attention. Our study has several limitations. First, NPI effectiveness may depend on the context of implementation, such as the presence of other NPIs and country-specific factors. Our estimates must be interpreted as the average effectiveness over the contexts in our dataset10, and expert judgement is required to adjust them to local circumstances. Second, R may have been reduced by unobserved NPIs or spontaneous behaviour changes. To investigate whether these reductions could be falsely attributed to the observed NPIs, we perform several additional analyses and find that our results are stable to a range of unobserved effects (Appendix B.3). However, this sensitivity check can...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources We also used Wikipedia and the masks4all dataset 26 to ascertain when countries mandated mask-wearing in ( some ) public places . Wikipediasuggested: (Wikipedia, SCR_004897)To extract utility scores , we used the analytical estimation for the multinomial logit model , 39 as implemented in the bwsTools package 40 in R . 2.4 . bwsToolssuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.
About SciScore
SciScore is an automated tool that is designed …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources We also used Wikipedia and the masks4all dataset 26 to ascertain when countries mandated mask-wearing in ( some ) public places . Wikipediasuggested: (Wikipedia, SCR_004897)To extract utility scores , we used the analytical estimation for the multinomial logit model , 39 as implemented in the bwsTools package 40 in R . 2.4 . bwsToolssuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.
About SciScore
SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore is not a substitute for expert review. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers) in the manuscript, and detects sentences that appear to be missing RRIDs. SciScore also checks to make sure that rigor criteria are addressed by authors. It does this by detecting sentences that discuss criteria such as blinding or power analysis. SciScore does not guarantee that the rigor criteria that it detects are appropriate for the particular study. Instead it assists authors, editors, and reviewers by drawing attention to sections of the manuscript that contain or should contain various rigor criteria and key resources. For details on the results shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.
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