Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

  1. Henrik Salje
  2. Cécile Tran Kiem
  3. Noémie Lefrancq
  4. Noémie Courtejoie
  5. Paolo Bosetti
  6. Juliette Paireau
  7. Alessio Andronico
  8. Nathanaël Hozé
  9. Jehanne Richet
  10. Claire-Lise Dubost
  11. Yann Le Strat
  12. Justin Lessler
  13. Daniel Levy-Bruhl
  14. Arnaud Fontanet
  15. Lulla Opatowski
  16. Pierre-Yves Boelle
  17. Simon Cauchemez

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Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exacted a heavy toll in France during March and April 2020. Quarantine measures were effective in reducing transmission by 84%, and some relaxation of social isolation was expected in May. Salje et al. fit transmission models for the epidemic in France to hospital admissions. The authors forecast that 2.9 million people will have been infected by 11 May, representing 4.4% of the population—a value inadequate for herd immunity. Daily critical care hospitalizations should reduce from several hundreds to tens of cases, but control will remain a delicate balancing act. Any relaxation of lockdown in France will have to be carefully controlled and monitored to avoid undermining more optimistic forecasts.

Science , this issue p. 208

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  1. Version published to 10.1126/science.abc3517
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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.20.20072413v2 on medRxiv
  4. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.20.20072413v1 on medRxiv