Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
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Abstract
In some quarters, it is hoped that increased humidity and higher temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere in the summer will snuff out the 2020 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. In reality, the situation is likely to be more complicated than that. Baker et al. used a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, testing different scenarios of climate dependence based on known coronavirus biology. Levels of susceptibility among the population remain the driving factor for the pandemic, and without effective control measures, the pandemic will persist in the coming months, causing severe outbreaks even in humid climates. Summer will not substantially limit pandemic growth.
Science this issue p. 315
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.03.20052787: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources Studies using another endemic coronavirus, NL63, found that neutralizing antibody titers declined to zero 52 weeks after first infection [24]. NL63suggested: (Virostat Cat# 3878, RRID:AB_2889993)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are several caveats to interpreting these results. Primarily, our simulations do not address control measures, such as social-distancing, …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.03.20052787: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources Studies using another endemic coronavirus, NL63, found that neutralizing antibody titers declined to zero 52 weeks after first infection [24]. NL63suggested: (Virostat Cat# 3878, RRID:AB_2889993)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are several caveats to interpreting these results. Primarily, our simulations do not address control measures, such as social-distancing, that are being implemented in many countries at present. Our model also does not account for potential cross-protection from other coronavirus infections [17]. Finally, results from influenza and RSV suggest that high precipitation may play a role in driving transmission [13, 22], particularly in tropical locations. Due to limited data on betacoronaviruses from tropical locations, we have not been able to confirm whether a rainfall signal exists. Our results suggest that while climate may play a role in modulating detailed aspects of the size and timescales of a pandemic outbreak within a particular location, population immunity is a much more fundamental driver. Although our HKU1 scenarios presents a modest role for climate in terms of shifting the timing and intensity of the pandemic, a scenario with OC43 parameters is equally likely. In terms of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, our results imply that both tropical and temperate locations should prepare for severe outbreaks of the disease and that summertime temperatures will not effectively limit the spread the infection. However, this does not mean the climate is not important in the longer term. Endemic cycles of the disease will likely be tied to climate factors and seasonal peaks may vary with latitude (Fig.S3). A more detailed understanding of climate drivers as well as immunity lengt...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
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- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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