Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders

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Abstract

No abstract available

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.08.21251386: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This is an important limitation of our model that would be useful to examine in future investigations. Perhaps the following analogy may help to understand the meaning of this result. In comic books the outcome of a war is determined by a handful of superheroes and supervillains. In reality it is determined by the combined effort of many people at the lowest rungs of the military hierarchy: privates, petty and junior officers, and so forth. Our conclusion is that epidemic spread is like the “real war” rather than the “comic-book one”. This has an essential implication for public health policy. While the prevention of superspreading is important (it changes the exponential growth rate ℛ0 = [σs]/γ and drives down the averages in equations (21) and (22)), it is the mundane everyday efforts that matter most. Lastly, we provide a simple, but efficient mathematical apparatus to calculate the epidemic dynamics for a population with variable infectivity and susceptibility, and cast it in a form suitable for numerical estimates. We hope this apparatus might turn out to be useful beyond the insights formulated in this paper.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from scite Reference Check: We found one citation with an erratum. We recommend checking the erratum to confirm that it does not impact the accuracy of your citation.

    DOIStatusTitle
    10.1038/nature09907Has erratumA diverse range of gene products are effectors of the type I…

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.