Post-pandemic Spread of Influenza and RSV in a Child Care Facility in Ontario in the Presence of Vaccination

We present a mathematical model of a daycare center in Ontario to investigate concurrent pathogen transmissions among students (1.5 to 4 years) and teachers in a simulated child care center. The pathogens included are seasonal influenza and RSV. The model simulates detailed movements and interactions within a structured childcare environment, enabling analysis of pathogen exposure, infection rates, and transmission dynamics. Simulations incorporate empirical contact data collected from an Ontario daycare facility, existing values of epidemiological parameters, and publicly available health statistics. Pathogens are assumed to be introduced from outside of the facility, and the model provides estimates of infection rates within the childcare facility, as well as likelihood of re-introduction from offsite. Results derived from the model further explore the impact of existing and potential vaccination strategies on diseases transmission. We explore scenarios reflecting current vaccination up take for influenza, as well as potential uptake and efficacy of a novel RSV vaccine.