Early-Life Sugar Restriction and Long-Term Risk of Cancer: A Natural Experiment Study in the UK

Objective

To examine whether early-life exposure to sugar rationing is associated with reduced risk of cancer and cardiometabolic disease in adulthood, leveraging a natural experiment created by the abrupt end of post-war sugar rationing in the United Kingdom on 26 September 1953.

Design

Natural experiment study using an event-study design based on variation in the dura-tion of exposure to sugar rationing during the first 1000 days of life (from conception to age 2 years).

Setting

UK Biobank, a large prospective cohort recruited from across the UK.

Participants

’64,761 UK Biobank participants born between 1951 and 1956, a window spanning the 1953 de-rationing event. Exposure to sugar restriction was determined by birth date relative to the policy change. Individuals with multiple births, adoption, birth outside the UK, or pre-existing disease were excluded.

Main outcome measures

Adult incidence of major cancers, digestive (liver, rectum), respira-tory (lung), and hormone-sensitive (prostate, breast), estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. We also assessed long-term behavioural outcomes (dietary patterns) and biological markers (leukocyte telomere length; circulating Granzyme B).

Results

Longer exposure to sugar rationing during early life was associated with lower risk of multiple diseases in adulthood. Participants exposed in utero plus one to two years had lower incidence of digestive cancers (liver: hazard ratio 0.31, 95% confidence interval 0.18 to 0.49; rectum: 0.60, 0.51 to 0.69), respiratory cancer (lung: 0.59, 0.50 to 0.68), and hormone-sensitive cancers (prostate: 0.48, 0.43 to 0.55; breast: 0.64, 0.58 to 0.70).

Mechanisms

Two complementary mechanisms were identified: (1) a behavioural programming pathway, wherein early-life restriction led to a persistent hedonic shift resulting in lower sugar intake and healthier dietary habits five decades later; and (2) a biological imprinting pathway, evidenced by 0.05 SD longer leukocyte telomere length ( ≈ 2.2 years less biological ageing) and lower circulating Granzyme B levels.

Conclusion

Exposure to sugar restriction during the first 1,000 days was associated with lower cancer and slower biological ageing, offering rare causal evidence that early-life nutrition can permanently shape disease susceptibility. During rationing, adults consumed about 40 g/day of sugar, well within WHO-recommended levels, whereas intake doubled to roughly 80 g/day once controls ended. This natural contrast shows that maintaining WHO-level sugar intake in early life can yield lasting health benefits. With current consumption far above recommended thresholds, the case for early-life sugar reduction is both urgent and highly consequential.

What is already known on this topic

• Excess sugar intake is linked to metabolic and inflammatory pathways that increase the risk of chronic disease, but most human evidence is observational and potentially confounded.

• Prior studies have used the post-war sugar rationing period in the United Kingdom to identify long-term effects of early-life nutrition on metabolic and cardiovascular outcomes.

• No previous research has examined the causal impact of early-life sugar exposure on cancer incidence or biological ageing.

What this study adds

• Leveraging the abrupt end of post-war sugar rationing in 1953 as a natural experiment, this study provides causal evidence that early-life sugar restriction reduces lifetime risk of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases.

• Early-life exposure to sugar rationing was associated with lower incidence of digestive (liver, rectum), respiratory (lung), and hormone-sensitive (prostate, breast) cancers.

• Two complementary mechanisms were identified: (1) a behavioural programming pathway, where early nutritional scarcity induced a persistent hedonic shift toward lower sugar intake and healthier diets; and (2) a biological imprinting pathway, re-flected in longer leukocyte telomere length and lower Granzyme B levels, indicating slower cellular ageing and reduced inflammation.