Spatio-temporal dynamics of snakebite envenoming in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil (2007–2023): environmental interfaces, occupational risk, and predictive modeling

Snakebite envenoming remains a significant public health concern in Brazil. This study analyzed the epidemiological, spatial, and environmental patterns of snakebite envenoming in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) between 2007 and 2023. An average of 415 cases were reported annually, showing no consistent long-term trend but a clear seasonal peak between January and April. Most incidents were caused by Bothrops species, which were widely distributed across the state, whereas Crotalus , Micrurus , and Lachesis occurred less frequently and exhibited more geographically restricted distributions. Spatial analyses revealed pronounced heterogeneity among municipalities, with persistent high-risk areas in central-southern and northwestern regions, including Campo Grande, Aquidauana, and Bonito. Demographically, most cases occurred in adult men of mixed ethnicity, though children and elderly individuals showed greater vulnerability to severe outcomes. Lower limbs were the most frequently affected anatomical sites, and rapid access to antivenom therapy contributed to low overall mortality. Environmental and land-use variables, particularly agriculture, pastures, and urban areas, were positively associated with snakebite envenoming, whereas biome and climate exerted limited influence. Municipalities with high tourism activity also exhibited elevated case numbers, reflecting interactions between human mobility, exposure, and reporting. These findings indicate that snakebite risk in MS is primarily shaped by local socio-environmental factors, with strong seasonal and spatial variability, and provide evidence-based guidance for targeted prevention, equitable resource allocation, and strategic public health planning focused on vulnerable populations. These findings can inform predictive surveillance and guide regional antivenom distribution strategies