A general model for genomic traits evolution

A large body of data indicates that genomic elements, including gene families and entire genomes, exhibit diverse types of evolutionary dynamics. Several models have been developed to describe the dynamics of, for example, genome size; however, a simple deterministic model with interpretable parameters that could be useful for fitting a variety of data remains an open problem. Here, we show that (a continuous form of) the Breeder’s equation for the evolution of quantitative traits/characters leads to a general model that explains the dynamics of genomic elements generated by indel mutations (duplications, insertions, and deletions) and selection. Our framework consists of a general exponential-linear model that predicts at least six different types of dynamical behaviors, including exponential growth and decay. The equations fit data, such as evolution experiments across generations, field observational data of genome sizes across time, and data from phylogenetic reconstructions of ancestral states of genome size across millions of years of a variety of taxa, including viruses, bacteria, fungi, unicellular eukaryotes, plants, and animals, at both intra- and interspecific levels. To test the universality of the dynamics, we derived a dimensionless equation that enables the (re)scaling and subsequent collapse of all data for growth or decay onto a single universal curve. Thus, our model provides a general basis not only for explaining the dynamics in the size of gene families or whole genomes of populations across taxonomic and environmental scales, but also other traits, providing a foundation for further theoretical developments.