MRI-based classifier to identify close-to-onset cases in C9orf72 genetic frontotemporal dementia

Predicting symptom onset in genetic frontotemporal dementia (FTD) is crucial for advancing targeted interventions and clinical trial design. Brain changes begin years before clinical symptoms emerge, making neuroimaging a strong candidate for onset prediction. However, FTD is highly heterogeneous, encompassing diverse molecular pathologies, affected brain networks, and symptom trajectories. This variability limits the predictive power of any single imaging biomarker and underscores the need for an integrative, multimodal approach to improve prediction accuracy and generalizability.

We used machine learning to integrate diverse neuroimaging features, identifying a robust signature for risk stratification. We analyzed T1-weighted and T2-weighted MRI scans from 71 symptomatic C9orf72 carriers, 90 presymptomatic carriers, and 69 healthy controls from the GENFI cohort. We used FreeSurfer to measure cortical thickness and subcortical volumes, and BISON to quantify white matter hyperintensities (WMH). We applied Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and trained a random forest classifier to distinguish symptomatic carriers from controls. The model was subsequently applied to the presymptomatic cohort to identify individuals whose brain patterns resembled those of symptomatic cases, under the hypothesis that greater similarity indicated a higher risk of conversion. We validated the model with neuropsychological data and a two-year longitudinal follow-up.

The classifier distinguished symptomatic C9orf72 carriers from controls with 87.0% accuracy. When applied to presymptomatic carriers, the model identified 21.1% of the cohort as having brain features comparable to those of symptomatic cases. This “high-risk group” showed significant neuropsychological weaknesses in executive function, language and social cognition compared to the non high-risk group. The model accurately predicted clinical conversion within a two-year period with 84.5% accuracy, a 70% sensitivity and a 93.3% negative predictive value.

Our findings demonstrate the utility of a machine learning approach using multi-modal MRI to identify presymptomatic C9orf72 carriers at high risk of disease onset within the next two years. By capturing subtle neuroanatomical patterns associated with disease processes, this approach offers a promising method for stratifying genetic FTD carriers prior to symptom onset. Such predictive models could optimize patient selection in future clinical trials.