Coarse-graining reveals collective predictive information in a sensory population

Biological systems perform complex computations using hundreds of individual actors, but they do so efficiently and in a way that can be read out and interpreted by other biological networks. Coarsegraining may allow for key collective features to be effectively and efficiently communicated. In the brain, early sensory systems perform prediction, which can compensate for lags in neural processing. This computation is collective, meaning it relies upon interactions between many neurons, and operates in complex, dynamic natural environments. Taking these two facets of biological complexity together, we search for maximally-predictive collective variables in large groups of retinal ganglion cells responding to dynamic natural visual scenes. To find collective variables that best capture predictive computations in the neurons, we apply a tractable, approximate implementation of the information bottleneck method to neural data. We infer a lower-dimensional representation that is maximally informative about the future neural activity. We observe scaling relationships between this mutual information estimate, neural subset size, and information decay timescale. Further, the structure of collective modes changes for predicting at short versus longer timescales.