Poverty and family adversity trajectories and Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) status in early adulthood: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

  1. Kalu Udu
  2. Nicholas Kofi Adjei
  3. Akanni Lateef
  4. Gianmaria Niccodemi
  5. Yanhua Chen
  6. Yu Wei Chua
  7. Rosalie Cattermole
  8. Michelle Black
  9. Luke Munford
  10. Karsten Thielen
  11. Leonie K Elsenburg
  12. Naja Hulvej Rod
  13. Steven Hope
  14. Hanna Creese
  15. Dougal Hargreaves
  16. David C Taylor-Robinson
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Abstract

Background

Young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are at an increased risk of long-term social and economic disadvantage. While previous research has linked various risk factors and individual characteristics to NEET status, evidence on the cumulative impact of early-life exposure to childhood adversity in the UK remains limited.

Methods

We analysed longitudinal data on 8,368 participants from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Using group-based multi-trajectory modelling approach, we identified six distinct exposure trajectories of poverty and family adversity (including poor parental mental health, domestic violence and abuse and alcohol use) from aged 9 months to 14 years. NEET status was assessed at age 17. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% CIs were estimated using logistic regression models. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated to estimate the proportion of NEET cases attributable to childhood poverty and family adversity.

Results

Overall, 3.5% of participants were NEET at age 17 years. NEET status was more prevalent among young people from socially disadvantaged backgrounds than their peers. Exposure to persistent family childhood adversities was associated with greater likelihood of being NEET. Young people exposed to both persistent poverty and poor parental mental health throughout childhood (0-14 years) had five times greater odds of being NEET (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.0; 95% CI 3.4–7.5) compared to those in low poverty and adversity. An estimated 52.9% (95% CI: 41.1–61.7) of NEET cases were attributable to persistent exposure to poverty and family adversity.

Conclusion

Family childhood adversities, particularly household poverty and poor parental mental health are strongly associated with an increased risk of being NEET on transition to adulthood. Interventions that address early-life socio-economic disadvantage and family functioning may be critical for preventing NEET and mitigating its long-term social and economic consequences.

What is already known on this topic

  • Young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are at risk of poor health, social exclusion and long-term economic disadvantage.

  • Childhood poverty and family adversity have been associated with NEET status, but their cumulative and life-course impact in the UK remains unclear.

What this study adds

  • Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative UK cohort, this study shows that persistent exposure to poverty and family childhood adversity including poor parental mental health increase the likelihood of being NEET at age 17.

  • Individuals exposed to multiple family childhood adversity (i.e., poverty and poor parental mental health) were five times more likely to be NEET.

  • An estimated 52.9% NEET cases were attributable to persistent poverty and family childhood adversity.

How this study might affect research, policy, or practice

  • Interventions that address family childhood adversity, particularly household poverty and poor parental mental health could substantially reduce NEET prevalence and mitigate long-term inequalities.

Article activity feed

  1. Version published to 10.1101/2025.10.07.25337496 on medRxiv