Genomic heterogeneity inflates the performance of variant pathogenicity predictions
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Recent studies have reported unprecedented accuracy predicting pathogenic variants across the genome, including in noncoding regions, using large AI models trained on vast genomic data. We present a comprehensive evaluation of these frontier models, showing that performance is inflated by differences in the prevalence of pathogenic variants across genomic contexts. We identify the best-performing models for each variant type and establish a benchmark to guide future progress.
