Perceptual predictions track subjective, over objective, statistical structure
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Predictive processes in cognition and the brain are usually modelled as tracking objective event probabilities. However, we know little about how our subjective representations of statistical structure may determine these functions, as they will likely be related to, but dissociate from, the objective statistics. To this end, we conducted three studies where cues (actions or tones) predicted visual outcomes (shapes or Gabors) with varying contingencies, and adult participants discriminated these outcomes. Uniquely to our paradigm, participants also rated the subjective probability (Experiment 1; N = 68), expectedness (Experiment 2; N = 35), or surprise (Experiment 3; N = 35) of the outcomes. When modelling subjective ratings alongside objective structure, discrimination speed was best explained by independent contributions from both, whereas the decision itself was usually only explained by the ratings. These findings open a host of interesting questions about the relative objective and subjective contributions to prediction, perception, and learning.
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General disclosures
Conflicts of interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Funding: This research was supported by a European Research Council (ERC) consolidator grant (101001592) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme awarded to CP. Artificial intelligence: No artificial intelligence-assisted technologies were used in the research or the creation of this article. Ethics: All experiments received approval from the local research ethics committee.
Experiment 1
Pre-registration: The study design was pre-registered prior to data collection ( https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/VRB2M ). The analysis plan was not pre-registered. Materials: All experimental materials are publicly available on the Open Science Framework (OSF). Data: All primary data are publicly available on OSF. Analysis scripts: All analysis scripts are publicly available on OSF. OSF link for the entire project: https://osf.io/nte5u/files/osfstorage# .
Experiment 2
Pre-registration: No aspects of the study were pre-registered. Materials: All experimental materials are publicly available on OSF. Data: All primary data are publicly available on OSF. Analysis scripts: All analysis scripts are publicly available on OSF.
Experiment 3
Pre-registration: The study design and analysis plan were pre-registered prior to data collection (OSF link: https://osf.io/y3xhc ). Materials: All experimental materials are publicly available on OSF. Data: All primary data are publicly available on OSF. Analysis scripts: All analysis scripts are publicly available on OSF.
