Insights from a Ventilation-Aware Pandemic and Outbreak Risk Model (VAPOR)

Transmission of airborne pathogens in indoor spaces is strongly modulated by heterogeneity in ventilation. Understanding the role indoor air plays in pandemic risk is limited in part due to differing modeling approaches used in engineering and epidemiology. Here we present the VAPOR (Ventilation-Aware Pandemic and Outbreak Risk) model, a hybrid transmission framework that integrates Reed-Frost close-contact dynamics with Wells-Riley aerosol-mediated risk. Using a meta-population structure to simulate multi-patch environments (e.g., separate workplaces or schools), we explore how ventilation disparities shape epidemic potential. A fixed minority of individuals are modeled as “aerosolizers,” consistent with overdispersed real-world transmission patterns (e.g., SARS-CoV-2). Simulations reveal that both improving ventilation in high-risk patches and raising baseline ventilation across environments independently reduce risk. Parameter sweeps across air changes per hour (ACH, 2–12) demonstrate non-linear benefits with early saturation. These findings emphasize the need for targeted ventilation strategies and show how small-world effects amplify heterogeneity-driven transmission. VAPOR offers a framework for linking ventilation equity to epidemic control.