Analysis of MPXV RNA-seq Data Reveals Lack of Evidence of APOBEC3-mediated RNA Editing

The 2022 outbreak of monkeypox virus (MPXV), a double-stranded DNA virus, is remarkable for an unusually high number of single-nucleotide substitutions compared to earlier strains, with a strong bias toward C→T and G→A transitions consistent with the APOBEC3 cytidine deaminase activity. While APOBEC3-induced mutagenesis is well documented at the DNA level, its potential impact on MPXV RNA transcripts remains unclear. To assess whether APOBEC3 enzymes act on MPXV RNA, we analyzed RNA-seq data from infected samples. The enrichment of APOBEC-signature substitutions among high-frequency mismatched positions led us to consider two possibilities: RNA editing at hotspots or fixed DNA mutations. Multiple lines of evidence support the conclusion that these substitutions arise from DNA-level mutagenesis rather than RNA editing. These include a substantial number of G→A substitutions remaining after normalization by gene strand direction, a largely neutral impact of substitutions on protein-coding sequences, the lack of positional correlation with transcriptional features or RNA secondary structure typically associated with APOBEC action hotspots, and an overlap with known genomic mutations in MPXV strains. Analysis of the nucleotide context of observed substitutions indicated that APOBEC3A was a likely driver of DNA-level mutagenesis.