Revisiting the plague epidemic in Gévaudan, 1720-1722: the key roles of multiple zoonotic introductions and human-to-human transmission
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We revisited the spread of the plague epidemic which decimated the province of Gévaudan, France, in 1720-1722, and was assumed to have its origin in the great plague epidemic of Marseille, 1720. Using historical records of bubonic plague deaths in the first affected village of Corréjac, we showed that the commonly admitted origin of the epidemic, thought to have been seeded by an escaped convict from Marseille, is highly implausible. We developed a statistical model to estimate the respective intensities of human-to-human and rodent-to-human transmission, and showed that both pathways were needed to sustain the epidemic, with person-to-person transmission accounting roughly for two thirds of all cases. These results bring support to the theory that human ectoparasites such as fleas and lice may play an important role in bubonic plague epidemics through the mediation of human-to-human transmission.
