Parameter-wise predictions and sensitivity analysis for random walk models in the life sciences

Sensitivity analysis characterises input–output relationships for mathematical models, and has been widely applied to deterministic models across many applications in the life sciences. In contrast, sensitivity analysis for stochastic models has received less attention, with most previous work focusing on well-mixed, non-spatial problems. For explicit spatio-temporal stochastic models, such as random walk models (RWMs), sensitivity analysis has received far less attention. Here we present a new type of sensitivity analysis, called parameter-wise prediction , for two types of biologically-motivated and computationally expensive RWMs. To overcome the limitations of directly analysing stochastic simulations, we employ continuum-limit partial differential equation (PDE) descriptions as surrogate models, and we link these efficient surrogate descriptions to the RWMs using a range of biophysically-motivated measurement error models . Our approach is likelihood-based, which means that we also consider likelihood-based parameter estimation and identifiability analysis along with parameter sensitivity. The new approach is presented for two important classes of lattice-based RWM including a classical model where crowding effects are neglected, and an exclusion process model that explicitly incorporates crowding. Our workflow illustrates how different process models can be combined with different measurement error models to reveal how each parameter impacts the outcome of the expensive stochastic simulation. Open-access software to replicate all results is available on GitHub.