Sensitivity analysis of factors influencing the ecology of mosquitoes involved in the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus

Vector-borne diseases are a major global health concern, with Rift Valley fever (RVF) serving as a key example due to its impact on both human and animal health. Effective control and prediction of such diseases require an understanding of how environmental factors influence mosquito ecology. As mosquito abundance, distribution, and behavior are shaped by ecological conditions, identifying these drivers is essential for anticipating transmission risk and informing public health interventions. This study aims to assess the sensitivity of key factors governing the ecology of mosquitoes, using a deterministic, compartmental model developed for the transmission of RVFV in Kenya. Specifically, we investigate the influence of four model parameters on mosquito abundance, focusing on the proportion of water body area utilized for oviposition. A literature review was conducted to establish parameter ranges and distributions. The Sobol method of global sensitivity analysis was then applied to a simplified model environment, firstly with constant temperature and water body area and secondly with periodic temperature and water body area. The indices calculated were used to rank the parameters based on their influence on mosquito abundance. The analysis showed that there is a need to reduce uncertainty in the area scanned by Culex and identified the proportion of water body area used for oviposition as a highly influential parameter. This finding underscores the need for further research into spatial oviposition trends across different water bodies, as current literature lacks sufficient data to inform realistic parameter estimates.