Predicting Developmental Norms from Baseline Cortical Thickness in Longitudinal Studies

Normative models have gained popularity in computational psychiatry for studying individual-level differences relative to population norms in biological data such as brain imaging, where measures like cortical thickness are typically predicted from variables such as age and sex. Nearly all published models to date are based on cross-sectional data, limiting their ability to predict longitudinal change. Here, we used longitudinal brain data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, comprising cortical thickness measures from 180 regions per hemisphere in youths at baseline (N=6179; 47% females), 2-year (N=6179; 47% females), and 4-year (N=805; 45% females) follow-up. A training set was established from baseline and 2-year follow-up data (N=5374; 47% females), while data from individuals with all three time points available served as an independent test set (N=805; 45% females). We developed sex-specific Baseline-Integrated Norms (B-Norms) that predict brain region thickness at follow-up based on baseline thickness, baseline age, and follow-up age, and compared them to sex-specific standard Cross-Sectional Norms (C-Norms) based on age alone. Out-of-sample testing in 2-year and 4-year follow-up data showed that B-Norms consistently provided better fits than C-Norms for nearly all cortical regions. Explained variance was higher in B-Norms than in C-Norms. We found no significant differences between time points (p = 0.45). Repeated measures ANOVA revealed differences in higher-order moments (e.g., skewness and kurtosis) for both models; for example, skewness varied by model, sex, time point, and their interactions. While improved fit alone does not necessarily indicate a superior normative model - since normative models aim to capture population variance rather than simply optimize fit - we demonstrated that four regions were associated with pubertal changes in B-Norms but not in C-Norms, suggesting enhanced sensitivity of B-Norms to developmental processes. Together, our findings highlight the potential of B-Norms for capturing normative variation in longitudinal structural brain change.