The effect of pre-booked appointments on COVID-19 vaccine uptake during the 2023 autumn campaign in the Netherlands: a regression discontinuity analysis

Introduction There is evidence that pre-booked appointments (PBA) for vaccination can enhance uptake, but might also result in reactance. We assessed the effect of PBA (versus self-scheduling) on uptake of COVID-19 vaccination during the 2023 autumn campaign in the Netherlands. Methods Persons aged ≥60 years were personally invited by mail. Those born between 01-01-1934 and 01-05-1952 (i.e., age 71.7-90.0 on 31-12-2023) received a letter with a PBA, while the others received a letter inviting them to self-schedule an appointment. National registries of sociodemographic determinants and COVID-19 vaccination were linked by a unique personal identifier. A regression discontinuity design was applied to estimate the local average treatment effect at 71.7 and 90.0 years of age. Stratified analyses were done for sociodemographic subgroups. Results The autumn 2023 vaccination coverage among persons aged ≥60 years with ≥1 prior registered COVID-19 vaccination (N = 4.0 million) was 55.0%. PBA resulted in a 3.3 (95% CI 2.6-4.1) and 4.5 (95% CI 2.8-6.3) percentage point higher uptake at 71.7 and 90.0 years, respectively. Subgroup analyses showed similar results. In one subgroup of migrants a negative effect of PBA was found, however, the confidence interval was wide. Discussion This nationwide quasi-experimental study shows that PBA is predominantly effective in increasing uptake by reducing the intention-behaviour gap. However, differences between subgroups should be taken into account to increase equity of the vaccination programme. If PBA leads to a lower uptake in certain subgroups with already a relatively low uptake, disparities likely become larger.