Predicting continuous outcomes: Some new tests of associative approaches to contingency learning

Associative learning models have traditionally simplified contingency learning by relying on binary classification of cues and outcomes, such as administering a medical treatment (or not) and observing whether the patient recovered (or not). While successful in capturing fundamental learning phenomena across human and animal studies, these models are not capable of representing variability in human experiences that are common in many real-world contexts. Indeed, where variation in outcome magnitude exists (e.g., severity of illness in a medical scenario), this class of models are, at best, approximate the outcome mean with no ability to represent the underlying distribution of values. In this paper, we introduce one approach to incorporating a distributed architecture into a prediction error learning model that tracks the contingency between cues and dimensional outcomes. Our Distributed Model allows associative links to form between the cue and outcome nodes that provide distributed representation depending on the magnitude of the outcome, thus enabling learning that extends beyond approximating the mean. Comparing the Distributed Model against a Simple Delta Model across four contingency learning experiments, we found that the Distributed Model provides significantly better fit to empirical data in virtually all participants. These findings suggest human learners rely on a means of encoding outcomes that preserves the continuous nature of experienced events, advancing our understanding of causal inference in complex environments.