Electoral outcomes and health inequality – association between respiratory disease and voting patterns in England
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Objectives
To establish if there is an association between health metrics and patterns of voting in England, particularly in relation to a recently established right wing party, Reform UK, in the 2024 general election.
Design
Ecological cross-sectional study with linear regression
Setting
England
Participants
543 constituencies in England
Main outcome measures
Estimated prevalence of 20 common non-communicable diseases, including obesity, COPD, asthma, type 2 diabetes and depression.
Results
Constituencies electing Reform MPs (n=5/543) had the highest prevalence of Asthma (7.44%) and COPD (2.85%). Across the country, adjusting for age, sex and deprivation, a 10% increase in the party’s vote share was associated with a +0.261% (95% Confidence Interval 0.213 to 0.309) prevalence of COPD, a +0.113% (95%CI 0.026 to 0.201) prevalence of asthma and a +1.479% (95%CI 1.239 to 1.720) increase in obesity prevalence.
Conclusions
At a constituency level, poor health, in particular conditions associated with breathlessness, is associated with a greater proportion of votes for Reform UK.
