Minimalistic Transcriptomic Signatures Permit Accurate Early Prediction of COVID-19 Mortality
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Background
Predicting mortality risk in patients with COVID-19 remains challenging, and accurate prognostic assays represent a persistent unmet clinical need. We aimed to identify and validate parsimonious transcriptomic signatures that accurately predict fatal outcomes within 48 hours of hospitalization.
Methods
We studied 894 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across 20 US hospitals and enrolled in the prospective Immunophenotyping Assessment in a COVID-19 Cohort (IMPACC) with peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and nasal swabs collected within 48 hours of admission. Host gene expression was assessed by RNA sequencing, nasal SARS-CoV-2 viral load was measured by RT-qPCR, and mortality was assessed at 28 days. We first defined transcriptional signatures and biological features of fatal COVID-19, which we compared against mortality signatures from an independent cohort of patients with non-COVID-19 sepsis (n=122). Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression in 70% of the COVID-19 cohort, we trained parsimonious prognostic classifiers incorporating host gene expression, age, and viral load. The performance of single and three-gene classifiers was then determined in the remaining 30% of the cohort and subsequently externally validated in an independent, contemporary COVID-19 cohort (n=137) with vaccinated patients.
Results
Fatal COVID-19 was characterized by 4189 differentially expressed genes in the peripheral blood, representing marked upregulation of neutrophil degranulation, erythrocyte gas exchange, and heme biosynthesis pathways, juxtaposed against downregulation of adaptive immune pathways. Only 7.6% of mortality-associated genes overlapped between COVID-19 and sepsis due to other causes. A COVID-specific three-gene peripheral blood classifier ( CD83, ATP1B2, DAAM2 ) combined with age and SARS-CoV-2 viral load achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.88 (95% CI 0.82–0.94). A three-gene nasal classifier ( SLC5A5, CD200R1 , FCER1A ), in comparison, yielded an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.64-0.83). Notably the expression of OLAH alone, a gene recently implicated in severe viral infection pathogenesis, yielded an AUC of 0.86 (0.79–0.93). Both peripheral blood classifiers demonstrated comparable performance in vaccinated patients from an independent external validation cohort (AUCs 0.74– 0.80).
Conclusions
A three-gene peripheral blood signature, as well as OLAH alone, accurately predict COVID-19 mortality early in hospitalization, including in vaccinated patients. These parsimonious blood- and nasal-based classifiers merit further study as accessible prognostic tools to guide triage, resource allocation, and early therapeutic interventions in COVID-19.
