Anticipating HIV Vaccines: A Cross-cultural Behavioral Economic Demand Analysis

The development of effective vaccines remains crucial for controlling infectious diseases, with behavioral economics offering insights into vaccine acceptance patterns. This study aimed to understand demand for HIV vaccines currently in development, using behavioral economics, examining cross-cultural differences between Nigerian ( n = 119) and United States ( n = 63) participants. They responded to three behavioural economic tasks: a simulated COVID-19 Vaccine Purchase Task (CVPT), HIV Vaccine Purchase Task (HVPT), and the Monetary Probability Discounting Task (MPDT). Demand curves were fitted using an exponentiated model with both purchase tasks demonstrating excellent fit ( R ² = .98). Multiple regression analyses examined relationships between behavioral economic indices and demographic factors. Nigerian participants showed significantly higher price sensitivity for both COVID-19 ( β = 1.10, p < .001) and HIV vaccines ( β = 0.90, p = .001) compared to U.S. participants, while baseline demand intensity and risk tolerance were similar between countries. Monetary risk-taking behavior predicted HIV vaccine demand ( β = −1.10, p = .02), and higher socioeconomic status was associated with lower price sensitivity ( β = −1.09, p = .04). The study demonstrates the utility of behavioral economic frameworks in modeling vaccine demand across cultures, revealing cross-cultural differences in price sensitivity and the potential relationship between COVID-19 and future HIV vaccine acceptance. These findings may have important implications for developing targeted public health interventions and policy frameworks for vaccine distribution, particularly in lower-income populations, to ensure equitable access to future HIV vaccines.