Secular Trends in Incidence, Prevalence, and Survival of Pancreatic Cancer in the United Kingdom: A Population-Based Cohort Study from 2000 to 2021

  1. Maria Raffaella Romito
  2. Eng Hooi Tan
  3. Asieh Golozar
  4. Talita Duarte-Salles
  5. Antonella Delmestri
  6. Wai Yi Man
  7. Edward Burn
  8. Daniel Prieto Alhambra
  9. Carlos Guarner-Argente
  10. Danielle Newby
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Abstract

Background

Pancreatic cancer is the seventh leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide and the fifth in the United Kingdom (UK), with incidence rates nearly matching mortality.

Methods

We conducted a population-based cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD and Aurum databases including patients aged 18+ with at least one year of prior data, diagnosed between 2000 and 2021. We estimated incidence, period prevalence, and survival at one, five, and ten years, stratified by age, sex, and calendar year.

Results

A total of 10,116 (GOLD) and 20,127 (Aurum) patients were included (median age 73 years, 50% male). Crude incidence rose from 6.9 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 to 14.2 in 2021. Age-standardized rates were lower towards the end of the study. Period prevalence increased from 0.01% to 0.03% over the same period. Median survival was 0.38 (95% CI 0.36–0.39) years in GOLD and 0.39 (95% CI 0.38–0.40) in Aurum. One-, five-, and ten-year survival were 25.3–26.2%, 6.1–6.6%, and 3.8–4.0%, respectively, with no differences by sex. One-year survival improved from 22.5% (95% CI 20.2–25.1) in 2000–2004 to 28.4% (95% CI 26.5–30.5) in 2015–2019.

Conclusions

Pancreatic cancer incidence and prevalence are increasing in the UK. Rising incidence may partly reflect population aging. Survival remains poor, with only modest short-term improvements. Small improvements in survival highlight more research is needed to improve earlier diagnosis which will lead to better patient outcomes.

KEY MESSAGES

  • This study aimed to assess long-term trends in the incidence, prevalence, and survival of pancreatic cancer in the United Kingdom using two large primary care databases.

  • We found that both incidence and prevalence of pancreatic cancer have increased between 2000 and 2021, while survival has remained poor, with only modest short-term improvements.

  • These findings highlight the urgent need for strategies focused on early diagnosis and prevention, particularly considering population aging and the increasing burden of modifiable risk factors.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2025.04.08.25325482v1 on medRxiv