Prevalence, Incidence, and Mortality of Autoimmune Diseases Among Adolescents and Young Adults in Mexico: An Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Autoimmune diseases (ADs) pose a significant health burden among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) in Mexico. However, comprehensive national epidemiological data remain limited. This study evaluates the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of six major AD: rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS), type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), asthma, and psoriasis, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Age-standardized rates were calculated through direct standardization using the GBD 2021 world standard population. Temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed via Joinpoint regression, which determined each condition average annual percentage change (AAPC). Additionally, an ARIMA model was employed to forecast trends for the period from 2022 to 2035. In 2021, RA exhibited an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 45.67, an incidence rate (ASIR) of 9.07, and a mortality rate (ASMR) of 0.02 per 100,000 inhabitants, with a marked female predominance and notable regional disparities. IBD showed low prevalence and incidence but a rising mortality trend, particularly in areas with enhanced diagnostic capacities. MS demonstrated increasing prevalence and incidence, especially among females. T1DM presented high prevalence and incidence, with declining trends over time accompanied by a gradual rise in mortality. Asthma remained highly prevalent despite overall declining trends, while psoriasis maintained a stable incidence with a considerable prevalence among AYAs. The findings highlight significant regional and sex-related disparities in the burden of ADs among Mexican AYAs. Forecasting analyses predict moderate increases in RA and MS, stability in IBD, asthma, and psoriasis, and a decline in T1DM prevalence and incidence, albeit with a slight increase in mortality. These results emphasize the urgent need for targeted public health interventions, improved diagnostic strategies, and equitable healthcare provision to mitigate the future impact of ADs in this vulnerable population.